The Lower Basin states have already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from Mead. The river basin is governed bya centuries-old agreement that allocates more water than flows through the river, and the federal Bureau of Reclamation has called on states to reduce water use by 2 million to 4 million acre-feet. 2002, 2018 and 2021 are the most intense dry periods on record for the basin. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, and this is a question that has been of intense interest to climate scientists. This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. Im John Dankosky, and now its time to check in on the state of science. JOHN DANKOSKY: Luke Runyon is a reporter based at KUNC in Fort Collins, Colorado. At full pool, Powell's water line lies 3,700 feet above sea level, and at 3,370 feet, it will reach deadpool levels. Brad Udall, a water researcher at Colorado State University whos not involved with the contingency plan, is less optimistic. Ultimately, experts said the future of the lake must be addressed in a way that creates the certainty it was intended to provide. It took 16 years for it to fill. Issued by Microsoft's ASP.NET Application, this cookie stores session data during a user's website visit. 2020. And thats because some of these past agreements have put that state in the most vulnerable position for cutbacks. They are trying to negotiate a three-state deal that would reduce water deliveries even further, he said. By January, the bureau projects water levels at Lake Mead to fall to 1,065.85 feet nine feet below the first shortage trigger elevation. Climate change is driving more than two decades of drought across the region, and making it increasingly unlikely that Lake Powell will ever climb back to previous levels. It is not creating certainty in the water market, Mankin said. The idea that these smaller upstream reservoirs can continue to compensate Powells losses, thats not the case, he said. The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application. They've been ignoring the problem coming for decades and decades. VigLink sets this cookie to show users relevant advertisements and also limit the number of adverts that are shown to them. Its companion reservoir, Lake Mead, is at levels almost as low. The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". In . Dry soils soak up snow when it melts, keeping it from rivers and reservoirs. And thats really what were watching right now, is how low is Lake Mead going to go? Nothing physically changed at that threshold, but its the agreed-upon alarm bell for trouble in the near future. Lake Powell generates power for about 5.8 million households and businesses in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. Experts say that the reservoir may dry up completely in a few decades. Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. Things will have to change in how we do business.. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". The dam stopped up the Colorado River, creating Lake Mead, the biggest reservoir in the United States. Meanwhile, climate change is adding pressure to the entire river system, exacerbating existing supply and demand imbalances. It sucks up moisture from forests, backyard gardens and crop fields with greater intensity. "It would kill 50 to 60% of the businesses in town," said Franz. This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. This Statista chart shows the share of the continental United States' area under different levels of drought between 2018 and 2022. This cookie is native to PHP applications. At this stage a significant amount of Glen Canyon . Skip Navigation. What does the forecast look like? The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. The sp_t cookie is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. JOHN DANKOSKY: When you use the term megadrought, that sounds like a newer term. The new Lake Powell study looks at the likelihood of lesser shortages in water availability for the Upper Basin as well as the possibility of the lake completely drying. In case of a drought like that of 2000-2005, Lake Mead would get 7.48 million acre-feet, worsening the structural deficit that is already causing Mead to drop by up to 12 feet a year due to the Lower Basin states chronic overuse of river water compared to supply. Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. However, the receding water levels have already greatly reduced the reservoirs generating capacity, to about 800 megawattsabout 60 percent. That includes releases of water upstream of Lake Powell, and voluntary cuts in Powells downstream neighbor, Lake Mead. The sp_landing is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously. The lake avoided serious problems during the drought because, in 1999, it was almost full. Today its about half full, Kuhn said. Arizona, which receives 36 percent of its water supply from the river, according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources, has been hit hardest by the cuts. BACKGROUND: Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. "Based on the best climate data that's available, it's really unlikely that this reservoir is going to be around in the decades to come," Eric Balken of the Glen Canyon Institute told 12News. This cookie, set by Cloudflare, is used to support Cloudflare Bot Management. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. This is a 300-mile canal that runs through the deserts of Arizona to deliver water to farmers and to the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. This cookie is used to manage the interaction with the online bots. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. The ranking by American Rivers is the sixth time since 1991 that all or part of the Colorado topped its endangered list. The combined reservoirs in Utah are below 50% full. VigLink sets this cookie to track the user behaviour and also limit the ads displayed, in order to ensure relevant advertising. And you know, thats way beyond any sort of voluntary conservation that Arizona has done up until this point. Weve seen declines in snowpack at the headwaters of the Colorado River and its tributaries. These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. The big question is how water managers will divvy up a shrinking supply to feed a growing region. Lake Mead's water levels were 1,047.38 feet as of February 23. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed. By Jan. 29, when the "after" image was taken, Shasta was up to 56%. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. A large portion of the water in the Colorado River and Lake Powell comes from high-mountain snowmelt in Colorado and Wyoming. We don't know what happens below 3,490, said Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir, is about 30% full and dropping, a water level not seen since the reservoir was first filled when the Glen Canyon Dam blocked up the Colorado . Arizona's environmental agency plans to legalize direct treatment of wastewater for drinking as soon as the end of this year. What about the idea of a water shortage? According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. That deficit is about the same amount of precipitation that falls across Utah in an entire year. The water level on Lake Powell is 100 feet from its high mark in August 2013. This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years., THE HILL 1625 K STREET, NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX. As snowpack runoff disappeared into dry ground instead of hitting the reservoirs, engineers calculated a 79% chance Lake Powell will fall below its minimum target water height of 3,525 feet above sea level next year. The pattern element in the name contains the unique identity number of the account or website it relates to. It wascreated by blocking the Colorado River atGlen Canyon in southern Utah and northernArizona. A warmer, drier climate will only increase the strain on Lake Mead and other water sources in the area Today, Lake Mead looks like a shell of its former self, hitting a new record low water level of 1,068.08 feet above sea level, according to a report from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. We called several of them and asked for discrete numbers that capture the current state of the Colorado River basin. The second-largest man-made reservoir in the country has dropped to unthinkable lows amid the West's climate change-driven megadrought. Satellite images show the dramatic impact of the 22-year-long mega-drought that . Are experts looking at this saying, its just going to get worse in the Colorado River basin? An acre-foot is 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water that will flood an acre of land to a depth of one foot. The lake that once covered 400 square miles has shrunk 90 percent, leaving behind oxygen-deprived, highly salinized water with a rotten-egg odor that permeates the surrounding area. Choose Tap Water Think ahead and cool a jug full in your refrigerator, so there's no need to buy bottled or leave the tap running. Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. A patchwork of other measures has been deployed throughout the Colorado River basin throughout the past few years, as drought and demand keep sapping reservoirs. Luke covers the Colorado River basin. "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. The answer is almost certainly, no, we're not at the bottom of impacts, said Zach Frankel, executive director of the Utah Rivers Council. It survives, she said. What are the effects of climate change? Without wet hydrology to replenish the reservoirs, the basin finds itself in an all but certain shortage condition for the first time." . As a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly. JOHN DANKOSKY: So its not just the reservoirs, though, where you see these dramatic pictures of just how low the water is. By the end of the summer, its projected to be even lower, at 29% of its capacity, which is a record low. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. The water in Lake Mead on Wednesday reached a new low 1070.6 feet above sea level since it was filled in the 1930's, according to data provided by the US Bureau of Reclamation. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. Invest in quality science journalism by making a donation to Science Friday. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads. A drought that has gripped the Southwest is creeping the nation's two largest reservoirs toward a dead pool, which would have catastrophic consequences for water users in the Colorado River's lower basin. ET: The dead pool level of Lake Powell has been corrected. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. Lake Powell hasn't been this low since June of 1965, just two years after it began to fill with water. Kuhns analysis is the worst case, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features. Whether the six-year cycle of 2000-05 repeats itself is anybodys guess, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir. JOHN DANKOSKY: So Colorado is obviously the name of this water system, but for people who dont know the Colorado River, maybe just give us a little geography lesson. Climatologist Jon Meyer with the Utah Climate Center said the number that captures the severity for him is 12 inches. The dryness is currently off the charts in parts of the watershed. If water levels at Lake Powell drop just another 32 feet, those generators will stop spinning. With the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in modern history, that brings us to our final number: 2026. Its been a vital force for the intermountain West because of its ability to store vast amounts of water and generate electricity for farmers, cities and towns in 13 states. More than four scientific studieshave pinned a large part of the decline on human climate change. If the drought and excessive water use continues, Lake Mead could reach dead pool in the next two years and Lake Powell could soon follow. The lake ended at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the muck for a hike up the canyon. Big Water, Utah It's hard to believe a place as beautiful as Lake Powell is also a shadow of its former self. And Lake Mead is currently at 37% capacity. The second would step up cloud-seeding programs to try to boost snowfall in the region. Lake Mead is projected to get down to 22 percent of its full capacity by year's end, while Lake Powell is expected to drop to 27 percent, according to estimations from the federal Bureau of . The Department of the Interior had asked the seven states of the Colorado River Compact to come up with a plan to cut between 2 and 4 million acre-feet of water by January. Tony graduated from Northwestern University and started at the Star in 1997. We don't know if we can release water to meet downstream requirements. The cookie does not store any personally identifiable data. And you know, those are cutbacks that users are actually going to feel and that municipal leaders, farmers, tribal users in Arizona are having to plan for right now. How does climate change affect you? What we're seeing now is almost a scenario in which some form of 'fill Mead first' could happen by default in as little as six years." Between the drought years of 2000-2005, Lake Powell lost 13 . With modest reductions in flow, they would be meaningful.. The Upper Colorado Commissions computer models have shown that if the Upper Basin states take the precautionary measures theyre talking about, the risk of Powell falling to dangerously low levels is near zero even if the basin gets another 25 years of weather like it did from 1988 through 2012, said Don Ostler, executive director the Upper Colorado River Commission. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. Lake Powell is hemmed by the Glen Canyon Dam, which generates hydroelectric power via the dam's water flowing through the dam back into the Colorado River. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Contact reporter Tony Davis at [email protected] or 806-7746. This summer, the water. We can not, unfortunately, say that these kinds of potentially catastrophic events will not occur under climate change, he said. How they disrupt our daily life, fuel disasters. First of all Lake Powell is not gonna dry up. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. Because of that, the spring and early summer will bring a temporary boost to water levels while snow runs into rivers and eventually flows into Lake Powell. The vast stripe rimming Powell is a testament to how far its level has dropped since 2000, when the Colorado's flows began a steady decline in response to persistent drought, warming temperatures. The lower basin is made up of Arizona, Nevada, and California. And it's not a backroom voodoo mystery that only fortune tellers can forecast. LUKE RUNYON: Well, I dont have a crystal ball. The bureau's report for June, added on to previously scheduled reservoir updates for January, April and August, paints a dire picture. And really, what were seeing in the basin is that warming of just a couple degrees has the potential to completely upend how the water cycle functions in the Southwest. Depending on how you define "dry up." It's doubtful that all 1,450 miles of the Colorado River will turn to dust, even if we drain Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest. Theyre roughly 25% full now, saidBrad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. It stores water as part of the Colorado River Compact and produceselectricity through the hydroelectric turbines in Glen Canyon dam. And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? At the same time,demand has risen due to increased population growth in the West. In the year 2000, the two reservoirs were 95% full. So it just throws the whole system into much greater uncertainty and a bit of chaos.. Okay. Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Homicide. The plan calls for a cut of 480,000 acre-feet, and is specifically designed to prop up Lake Powell before it dips too low to generate hydropower. After more than 22 years of drought compounded by warmer temperatures with climate change, Lake Mead and Lake Powell have declined to their lowest levels since they were filled. LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection. At Lake Mead's current capacity, one foot of elevation in the lake equals 85,000 acre-feet. Created by Bluecadet. That leaves a sizable deficit and little time to turn things around. Understanding and explaining the depth of the dryness is up to climate scientists throughout the basin. Joining me to shed a little bit more light on this is Luke Runyon. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads. You have permission to edit this article. A drying climate and withering heat in recent years have pummeled the region: water cuts to farmers, dry wells, mass fish and bird die-offs, and depleted reservoirs that have decimated hydropower output. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. Work on the dam that created Lake Powell began in 1956 and was finished in 1966. However, he said the biggest impact will be the water. Asthe latest round of federal forecastsfor the rivers flow shows, its plausible, maybe even likely, that the situation could get much worse this year. A severe drought could bring shortages of half a million to a million acre feet, Kuhn said. And this is just the beginning of what. The latest data shows the reservoir at 3,523 feet above sea level. Pause your chores until you have a full-load for the dishwasher. And even the people who say, you know, oh, just wait for it to get wet again, know that changes have to be made because of that fundamental supply-demand imbalance. On Sunday afternoon, boaters spending a day at the lake stumbled upon a barrel and were able to see that it had human remains in it, according to CNN. But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. Cookie used to remember the user's Disqus login credentials across websites that use Disqus. Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. : Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, READ MORE: Latest climate change news from USA TODAY. And I think its worth noting that things in the Colorado River basin can be highly variable year to year, and a few good snow years can change peoples opinions quite a bit. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Northern Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates the lake, has a full capacity of 1,320 megawatts, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Plastic milk jugs inexplicably dangle from the tops of the dead trees along the shore. It supplies water and power to Arizona, California and Nevada. Applying data from three droughts from a 25-year period starting in 1988, it predicted that even with little new growth in that basin, a moderate drought would trigger shortages of 350,000 to 500,000 acre-feet. There is also 29 federally-recognized tribes in the basin, of which 10 of those tribes hold a significant amount of water rights from the river. Exceptional drought is a category that is supposed to capture the severity and frequency of an extended dry period. Below 3,490 feet of elevation, Lake Powell dips into a zone where the generation of hydropower by water flowing through the Glen Canyon Dam becomes unreliable. The increase in temperatures means the atmosphere is thirstier. A load balancing cookie set to ensure requests by a client are sent to the same origin server. What is the current status of Lake Powell? A years worth of rain and snow is missing from Utahs ground. The wells that now supply Tucson are at 400 - 500 feet under the surface. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. The fact that they're becoming involved in this manner points to real concerns that they must have and they must view the situation as one of extreme difficulty that requires them to act more directly. The first warning sign would come if a drought pushed the lake below 3,525 feet, almost 85 feet below where it is now. It will be painful but it doesn't mean the area can't thrive. As the drought continues and global warming evaporates water supplying the reservoirs, each reservoir isn't far from dead pool, which is when the water level is too low to flow downstream or power the turbines that provide hydroelectric power. The finding is ominous for the region's future drinking-water supply. And as we warm even further, it makes it that much harder for our infrastructure, our water storage, to recover. That is incorrect. Give us an idea, if you would, just how low the supply is in the basins reservoirs right now. In coming years, it's going to get worse and worse and worse.. SiteLock sets this cookie to provide cloud-based website security services. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. On top of the hydropower the lake generates, its the source of drinking water for the 7,500 residents of Page, Az., and the 1,443 members of the LeChee chapter of the Navajo Nation. At 3,490 feet, Glen Canyon Dam reaches "minimum power pool." A water level of 3,490 feet is known as "minimum power pool." The Glen Canyon Institute has advocated for draining Lake Powell, both to replenish Lake Mead and to restore Glen Canyon, which was flooded to create Lake Powell. This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. Lake powell has an electrical generation station there. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. The basin is made up of portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California. Last week, the lake reached a disturbing new. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. 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Headwaters of the Colorado River basin now, saidBrad Udall, a level! California complicates critical water deal a significant amount of Glen Canyon, Kuhn.! The basin lidc cookie to track the user behaviour and also limit the displayed... California complicates critical water deal second-largest man-made reservoir in the year 2000, biggest... Subscribe to the National Park Service, contaminants from the Walton Family Foundation under different levels of between. Low the supply is in the United States ' area under different levels of drought between 2018 2022! Set to ensure relevant advertising legalize direct treatment of wastewater for drinking as soon as end! Idea, if you would, just how low the supply is in West..., those generators will stop spinning at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the for... Credentials across websites and collect information to provide visitors with relevant ads marketing! 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Plastic milk jugs inexplicably dangle from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, areas! Tdavis @ tucson.com or 806-7746 Yeah, and a yoga studio in the Lake be!

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